The Mighty Storm

Hurricane Helene rampaged through Western North Carolina a few weeks ago, drowning hundreds of souls, washing away homes, bridges, and roads, felling millions of trees, and leaving hundreds of thousands without power and water. This post is dedicated to all those who lost everything.

So many houses along creeks and rivers in this area were simply swept away-- knocked off their foundations by logs, swept into the current, and swiftly broken up into flotsam and jetsam. Many homes on sides of mountains were destroyed by landslides. If their occupants didn't get out in time, too often they were swept away too. 

The biggest lesson I took from my experience is that the meteorologists only give you a couple days of advance notice before a natural disaster hits, so it is critical that you follow the weather on a daily basis, trust the forecasts, and immediately start preparing to be stranded and out of water and power when the forecast starts to sound dire. 

One way to be prepared is to own a generator. I've wanted a generator for years, but the cost has always held me back. I've now decided to purchase one and have it hooked into our electrical panel and connected to our 1000-gallon propane tank so that it automatically kicks in when we lose power. In some ways, we were lucky: the temperature was perfect after the storm, so heating was not an issue. But in a winter storm, having a generator or other non-electric heating source will be critical.

Another way to be prepared is to have lots of bottled water on hand, and to fill bathtubs and buckets with water so that toilets can still be used. The novelty of pooping in a bucket wears off pretty quickly. Even if we have a generator, our well is on our neighbor's land, so we will probably still be without water in an outage. It was remarkable how much aid flowed in within just a couple days, but I know it didn't reach the most remote areas for much longer.

Finally, a longer-term impact of the storm has been on IV fluid availability. Apparently, Baxter's in North Cove makes 70% of the IV fluid for this country, and there simply isn't capacity elsewhere to take up the slack while they are offline. This lack of redundancy is frightening in itself-- but it's also frightening that in coming weeks, hospitals across the country may completely run out of IV fluid. Hospitals are probably realizing that they need to create and maintain the capacity to make their own basic fluids, if worst comes to worst-- just like they did in the old days.

Climate change- induced natural disasters keep throwing us back into the days of the frontier. Though we pull ourselves back into the 21st century at great cost, the next calamity is lurking just around the corner-- and it may be even worse. Be prepared!

Anatomy of a Peak Performance

I had the best triathlon of my life last month. I felt strong and smooth and comfortable in the water (I was ~300th out of 599 participants), passed a ton of people on the bike (I was 65th on the bike by time), and crushed the run (36th by time), coming in at 70th place overall.

I peaked well. And though I've caught some breaks, it wouldn't have happened if I hadn't made some key decisions over the last year. Here are 10 things that came together for me:

1. I was caffeinated. In case you didn't know it, caffeine is a major performance enhancer for not only cognitive efforts, but physical activities also. I always do my workouts and races caffeinated.
2. I was rested. I had an easy swim a week prior to the race and went on an easy run 5 days before, but otherwise did nothing for the 9 days leading up to the race except some mobility work.
3. I was uninjured. I have been strictly avoiding overtraining, which really paid off. I was also obligated to take some time out of the pool a month before the race due to a skin procedure, which helped my rotator cuffs stay as healthy as they can be. 
4. I did tempo running work at 6:15/mile pace. After a disappointing run portion of a triathlon 6 weeks prior, I realized I needed to train my body at faster than race pace so that I could get used to a faster pace. It sounds basic, but it's really easy to almost never run fast in your training, and that's a trap I had fallen into.
5. I did interval work on the stationary bike. I realized that my workouts are more intense on the stationary bike than they are on the road, because I can put my full energy and attention into the effort. And those workouts really paid dividends on race day.
6. I worked on activating the right muscles, specifically my glutes. This has been a focus of mine since I realized that most of my low back pain stemmed from me activating my paraspinals instead of my glutes. My hamstrings were also under excessive strain, leading to a few strains over the years. But since I've made it a morning practice to activate my glutes, my back and hamstrings have remarkably improved.
7. I took creatine. Creatine is a major performance enhancer and muscle builder with no real downside, and it's cheap, so there's really no reason not to take it if you are training.
8. I increased my protein intake. Other than skinny genes, inadequate protein may be the biggest reason I've not been able to gain muscle mass over the years. So I started drinking protein shakes, at least on my days off of work.
9. I got stronger. Thanks to activating the right muscles, staying healthy, and upping my protein and creatine intake, I've realized some modest but real gainz this year.
10. I wore new shoes. I've noticed over the last few years that new shoes drastically improve the way my legs feel and reduce my run times.

I also want to give a big shoutout to Hudson McGinnis, who joined me on our trip down to Wrightsville Beach for this triathlon. It was the first time I've had a bud to race with, and boy it was a blast to have him to pal around with before and after the big event. I'm looking forward to many more races with him... and any other friends we can talk into joining us!

I never realized how much we look like brothers!

Me and Hudson Goofball McGinnis checking out the transition area the day before the race

Health

Two happy, matching ladies

The two-year hiatus from the blog from which I am returning today was dictated by my desire for health-- relational, psychological, and physical. And though my intellectual life took a hit from the lack of writing, the sacrifice has been worth it. Mindy, Eliza, and now Josephine need me to be my best, not necessarily my smartest! Key parts of that effort have been:

• Addressing my mood so I can be present and positive
• Addressing my headaches and physical health so I can be sharp each day
• Training for triathlons so I can stay fit, motivated, and balanced
• Teaching point-of-care ultrasound so I can stay motivated at work
• Meditating so I can be more present and peaceful
• Learning how to parent a toddler so I can get Eliza's (and soon, Josephine's) life off to a good start

I've explicitly applied Warren Buffet's "2-list technique," in which the top 5 of one's list of 25 priorities are magnified, and the other 20 are set aside as "Avoid at all costs." To that end, I have temporarily cut out or limited peripheral interests like blogging, journaling, kayaking, wilderness medicine, mushrooming, fermenting, Spanish, dream work, active imagination, martial arts, rock climbing, firearms, grilling, music, carpentry, animal husbandry, skiing, knot-tying, and personal finance. These are all things that previous and future versions of myself are interested in pursuing, but this has not been their season.

As part of this push for more health, I've built up a rock-solid group of guys to run with about once a week. Michael, Doug, Matt, and Mike have provided some much-needed fellowship in this hinge period of my life, when my health and relationships have the potential to dramatically improve or drastically worsen. Thanks, fellas! I'm looking forward to many more years of slowing the rate of our gradually deteriorating fitness together.

My long-time buds Kevin Lloyd, Andrew Shank, Ben Hackney, Jacob Hall, Lee Robeson, Sam Cox, and Ben Carr have also kept me grounded, especially during times of serious illness with friends and family. I'm beyond thankful to be able to say that Ben Hackney and my brother Thomas have entered remission from their bouts with cancer, and I'm sure they would appreciate any and all thoughts and prayers for that to continue to be the case. I can't wait to see most of you this weekend for PAW (Perennial Atwater Weekend), our yearly get-together!

For now, I've moved away from listing new personal goals for each year, since all of the above priorities are longitudinal. Mindy and I have instead been planning out our family's major trips and events at the beginning of each year, which gives us lots of things to look forward to. But every goal and every list requires a reset from time to time, and I know this blog will be here when that time comes, and when it's time to start exploring new intellectual frontiers in detail again.

Until then, be well.

The Triathlon Is Still The Thing

Shoulder weakness has always been my swim's biggest limiting factor, and my relative lower extremity weakness also holds me back in the bike and run. So for the past year, I've focused on getting my shoulders and legs stronger. Until the last couple weeks, that consisted of consistent circuit workouts. I brought a 44lb kettlebell and elastic bands to work and generally complete a 30-45 minute circuit workout consisting of 3-4 rounds of 12-15 reps of 10-12 different exercises. At home, I have a couple different circuits I rotated through. With each of these workouts, I'm now doing more weight and more reps than I was 6 months ago, so I know I've achieved some real gains. But my IT bands and quads still seize up on me when I try to run more than 3 miles at a decent pace, as they have for the past year. And no amount of circuit training has affected that.

So I decided I had to do something different to get my legs back in running form. Two things, actually:

1. Myo reps training. In just the past week, my strict gymnastic ring pullups improved from 12-5-5-5-3 to 15-5-5-3 and my 155lb back squat improved from 10-5-5-5-4 to 12-5-5-5-5-5. Read the article linked above and try it out. It makes for an unbelievably quick workout, and maximally effective way to get stronger.
2. Deep tissue / trigger point release: I'm upping my game and using golf balls, foam rollers, foam balls, and good old-fashioned hand massage to work out the knots in my legs and rotator cuffs. I'll generally take 5-10 breaths with pressure on one spot until I feel it relax, then move to another tender spot. I'm also still getting monthly 90-minute deep tissue massages, which helps the back, shoulders, neck, and legs stay loose for a couple weeks.

As I head into triathlon season, I'm still not sure I'll be able to complete a run of any distance, so I'll be limiting myself to only sprint distances and only 2-3 races total. Best case scenario, my run is slower but the bike and swim make up for it. I've been swimming at the wellness center since February, and my times are already back to where they were two years ago. I haven't been biking as much as I'd like, but with the weather warming up, that'll be where I put a lot of my energies the next few months. 

As with most things in life, consistency is key. I'm pleased to have consistently gotten three workouts in a week for the past year, which seems to be my sweet spot to both make gains and limit injuries. Without a doubt, having triathlons to train for has given me the focus and motivation to push myself more than I would have otherwise. So what I wrote over two years ago still holds true: the triathlon is the thing that drives me to go harder and get better, faster, and stronger.

Crisis

I'll get right to the point: we have reached a crisis of epistemology. Spurred by a Republican party which played with the fire of fascism for too long, our democracy is back-sliding. Basic facts and reality are no longer accepted by a large swath of citizens. And as a result, domestic terrorism is blossoming like no other time in the past half-century. The die has been cast, and our collective future now promises years of increasing right-wing terrorism, assassination attempts, and instability. And each of the 62.9 million people in 2016 and 74.2 million people in 2020 who voted for the monstrous Donald Trump bears responsibility for this harvest of violence, destruction, and decay.

A decade ago, both right- and left-wing extremists numbered somewhere in the low millions. But since then, Trump and his followers on social media have waged a campaign of conspiracy, disinformation, and misinformation with unprecedented success. Educated, Christian, middle class folks who had a soft spot for right-wing authoritarians have metamorphosed into deranged, conspiracy theory- spouting radicals. So now we no longer have lunatic 2% on each end of the political spectrum, but at least 20% of the United States population has been radicalized into white Christian nationalists / white supremacists under the banner of Trump. Partly as a result, the ranks of leftist radicals have also swelled, though not to the right's extent. The long-term consequences of this metastasis of extremism will be profound.

If you don't believe the rough numbers above, think about how many people you knew 10 years ago who were in the thrall of completely false and idiotic conspiracy theories. Then think about how many you know now. Even though most of us are in a political echo chamber surrounded by a bubble of pandemic isolation, I can still think of a large number of people I personally know or have met who believe a frightening number of outright lies. And you probably do, too. Polls indicate that about a quarter of Americans truly think the election was stolen and continue to believe the storming of the Capitol was justified. 

Folks, this can only end in disaster. Trump has ushered us into a post-truth world, the field in which fascism has always thrived. 

On Sept 30, I wrote the following on this blog:

The biggest question I wrestle with is this: can our democracy survive if nearly half of otherwise normal Americans are living in an alternative virtual reality without any anchoring to basic facts? Even if our institutions survive the unrest that is likely to follow the November election, there is no end in sight to the political polarization and rapid dissemination of fake news and conspiracy theories on social media. No democracy can long stand the onslaught of what I will term Social Media Derangement Syndrome, which all of us are affected by to some degree. For the past decade, our institutions have been living on borrowed time, drawing on the strength of a bygone era, weakening and now cracking under the increasing weight of an unsophisticated populace entranced by their algorithmic social media feeds, beholden to "alternative facts," and susceptible to extremism that is rising on both ends of the political spectrum, but particularly on the right.

There have always been two Americas, just like every individual has two sides. Generous and selfish, sane and irrational, enlightened and tribal, continually coexisting in an uncertain tension, always mixed. But in most people, institutions, and societies, one or the other side predominates. Over the last 13 years, Republicans have increasingly given themselves over the dark side, and now it's too late for them to exorcise their fascist demon. Their electoral strategy now entirely depends on mobilizing their new base of white nationalists and supremacists. The fire they started playing with all those years ago has now consumed them.

Some pundits are saying that the Republican party still has a choice between continuing to rely on misinformation, fear, prejudice, and intimidation, or coming up with serious policies and going intellectually toe-to-toe with Democrats like in the good old days. But they truly no longer have a choice. Everyone in the party who can do math knows that they can't afford to lose the white radicals who now comprise 50% of their party. As I wrote on August 26, "by embracing Trump, with full knowledge of his charlatanic, ignorant, amoral, narcissistic, and authoritarian character, the Republicans' last chance to save their party from fascism was lost."

Republicans are completely bankrupt of policy ideas. The popular appetite of the 80's and 00's for more tax cuts is gone, and the vast majority of people on both the right and left actually like the fruits of Big Government, regardless of what some say. As evidenced by their rejection of the science of climate change in favor of the fossil fuel industry, their inability to rein in Big Tech, their susceptibility to an authoritarian, their neglect of growing income inequality, their spectacular failure to "repeal and replace" Obamacare in 2017, their utter lack of a party platform in 2020, and a host of other disastrous deficiencies, they have no vision for solving the massive problems facing us in the 21st century. Their only recourse now is to perpetuate the flood of conspiracy theories, misinformation, and disinformation so that even more people will be radicalized to their side, and to intensify their suppression of voters of color. 

So Republicans are lost. What happens next? The possibilities are uniformly violent, frightening, and dystopian. I conclude my August 26 post by noting:

Though most of the ingredients of fascism are in place, they have fortunately not been systematically employed. Trump is too focused on having his fragile ego massaged on a daily basis and lacks the strategic mindset needed to effect an overthrow of our longstanding democratic institutions. But they have been weakened, and the cracks are apparent. My greatest worry is that in 2024, 2028, or 2032, a truly Machiavellian character will emerge from the morass of the Republican party who will attempt a systematic dismantling of our democratic institutions. This will no doubt be fought tooth and nail by Democrats. But after the last four years, there remains no doubt that the vast majority of Republicans will go right along with it. And that might be enough. 

I have often wondered if charlatans like Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Mitch McConnell, and Lindsey Graham who obviously know that they're gaming a broken system realize just how dangerous a game they're playing or how fragile our system has become. Until January 6, maybe some of them didn't fully realize it. But there can be no doubt that every Republican politician now knows the stakes. Yet on January 7, in objecting to the Electoral College count, 121 Republican representatives and 6 Republican senators decided to keep playing it. Which tells me that even an unlikely Senate conviction of Trump for incitement to insurrection, which would require 17 Republican votes, cannot rid the party of the nihilism in its political ranks, much less the derangement of its supporters.

So what does this mean for the rest of the country, for Democrats and independents? 

For one, we have to be prepared for increasingly contested, divisive, and violent elections. Republicans will intensify their efforts which started after Shelby vs Holder in 2013 to suppress voters of color. Voter intimidation tactics not seen in over half a century will return. Militias will become more organized and go more underground. And more assassination plots like those seen this fall in Michigan will crop up. Unfortunately, FBI prosecutors have been discouraged from investigating right-wing extremists over the last four years, since they constitute Trump's base, so law enforcement is starting from a disadvantage. We can only hope they are good at playing catch-up. Though I'm still ambivalent about the advanced surveillance capabilities of the US government, hopefully they will be put to good use in this fight.

Another implication is that Democrats must take a stronger stand against extremism in their own ranks before it metastasizes and seizes control of the party. If not for Joe Biden's leadership, Bernie Sanders would have probably captured last year's nomination, lending credibility to Republicans' assertion of the radical socialism of Democrats, and leading to the alienation of millions of moderates and certain electoral defeat. Close to 40% of Democrats supported Sanders in both 2016 and 2020, and despite their noble policy aims, his supporters' zeal has led some of them into dangerously illiberal "cancel culture" territory. So mainstream, center-left Democrats must continue to keep a united front against the encroachment of the far left if they are to maintain their fragile electoral supremacy. Just because Republicans keep banging on about the danger of the radical left doesn't mean there isn't some truth and persuasiveness to it. 

If there is any hope to derive from January 6, it is that moderates will continue to be repulsed by fascist Republican tactics, and side with center-left Democrats in coming elections in the defense of freedom, democracy, truth, science, and justice. Millenials and Generation Z recognize the historical stakes, and we are growing in numbers and power. But regardless of where the electoral currents of the 2020's take us, we are facing a terrifying ride through a tsunami of lies, extremism, violence, and danger. So let's all lean in. Hopefully we'll get through this.

For Further Reading:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/magazine/trump-coup.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/trump-speech-capitol.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/politics/republican-party-trump.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/opinion/impeach-trump.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/opinion/capitol-attack-racism-america.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/opinion/trump-second-impeachment.html

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/16/trump-extremist-republicans-insurrection-459732

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/opinion/mitch-mcconnell-trump-impeachment.html

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/the-politics-of-power

2020 Odds and Ends

The leaves are down, the days are short, and the winter wind is shaking the house. It must be time to reflect on the year. Ah, 2020... a year that will go down in infamy in every history book. As I write this, a COVID tsunami dwarfing all previous surges is sweeping through our heartland, and hundreds of thousands of families are facing a holiday season bereft of loved ones claimed by the pandemic. At least it's been improved here towards the end by the ouster of America's mad boy-king (who still refuses to concede) and by the promise of a vaccine. 

As for me, it's actually been an excellent 10.5 months, for which I am undeserving and incredibly grateful. My immediate circle has been spared by the pandemic, and the High Country is a wonderful, beautiful place to live, regardless of the public health situation. Here's a quick rundown of my year:

• We are in the process of adopting Eliza! Due to DSS restrictions, I can't post any pictures, but once the adoption goes through, there will surely be a post (or ten) on her. Literally as I was finishing this post, Mindy brought her into the library to see me and she reached out her whole body out towards me and said "dada" for the very first time. She melts our hearts every day!
• Mindy and I had a fun and relaxing 5-year anniversary trip to Chimney Rock last month, where we explored the trails and waterfalls of the Southern Appalachians, stayed at a nice bed and breakfast, and Mindy went gem mining for the first time.
• The Community Care Clinic has undergone several staff transitions but is now secure and thriving and continues to serve as the safety net clinic for the High Country's uninsured population.
• I made lots of strides in my ultrasound abilities, and started teaching the Family Medicine residents basic ultrasound in July.
• As you might imagine, my work has been busy... but there's nothing like a pandemic to provide job security to a hospitalist!
• I've learned a great deal about the subconscious, and about myself in the process; more to come on that in future posts.
• I kayaked nine times, and successfully rolled my kayak for the first time.
• Though I didn't have the chance to compete in any triathlons, I needed a rebuilding year. 
• I started getting a lot stronger over the last few months after getting serious about working out, seeing a personal trainer a few times, taking creatine, and consistently doing circuit workouts every 3 days. 
• I learned to identify more types of mushrooms, and Mindy and I found several edible mushrooms in the wild: field mushrooms, lion's mane, and chicken of the woods. Lion's mane was particularly tasty with eggs and onions.

• 

  Lion's mane in the cast-iron skillet
  

  
  
  
  
• I fermented several kinds of peppers and other vegetables into various sauces, pickles, and pastes. Here's just one day's work out of several:

• 

  Pepper mash, turmeric paste, ginger paste, and pickled ginger
  





• The garden did fairly well, and my gardening skills greatly improved. Mindy and I finally enjoyed several batches of home-grown asparagus in May after three previous growing seasons established the asparagus patch. We had a fun variety of squashes, and lots of tomatoes, jalapeno and aji dulce chili peppers, collard greens, kale, parsley, cilantro, basil, cucumbers, beans, and sunflowers. The carrots, beets, lettuce, and spinach were a disappointment, and the okra, celery, and marigolds didn't sprout. I also learned that cantaloupes, eggplant, and most varieties of chili peppers don't do well here-- it just doesn't get quite warm enough. 

The garden in July

I'm content with my life, especially the strides Mindy and I have made over the last couple years. And though I'll keep gardening, mushrooming, fermenting, kayaking, triathloning, reading, blogging, and ultrasounding, I'm always looking for the next thing. For years, I've been wanting to get back into music, but just haven't had the margin. One day I also hope to get back into rock climbing, jiu-jitsu, and grilling. I'm also planning to build a jungle gym in the back yard. Maybe 2021 will be the year for some of those things. If 2020 is any indication, it will also be generously sprinkled with surprises.

I hope everyone reading this has also had a generous silver lining to an otherwise dark year. The next few weeks will be busy, so I'll see you all in December! Stay well, everyone.

The Tao of Joe

Moderates. It's easy to overlook them, to miss the passion and the genius because of the label. But as we all impatiently await a Biden rescue on the burning deck of the Trump administration, anxious and crazed in one way or another, it would behoove us to understand the psychological underpinnings of our president-elect. Fortunately, we have a lot of data to go on. Joe Biden's biographer Evan Osnos put it this way: Joe Biden's passion for fairness is the through-line guiding his career over the last 50 years. And it is precisely his lack of dogmatism-- his moderation-- that has given him the flexibility to navigate the treacherous waters of Washington and advance, in an imperfect but consensus-oriented way, countless fair and just movements over the course of his career. 

Though Biden has doggedly pursued fairness over the course of his life, his biography also showcases how unfair life can be, in the midst of good luck: His fortuitous election to the Senate at the age of 29, followed weeks later by the unbelievable tragedy of losing his wife and infant daughter in a car accident. His ill-fated presidential candidacy in 1988, redeemed 20 years later by his selection to be the vice-president to the most transformative president in a generation. The tragic loss of his son Beau in 2015, when everything else in his life had been building to a comfortable retirement. And of course, his faltering candidacy in early 2020, turned around in dramatic fashion in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. 

But the juxtaposition that trumps all the others has been the pandemic whose horror helped catapult Biden to the presidency. COVID-19 and the other crises of 2020 revealed to millions of Americans our deep need for a president who can provide stability, competence, decency, unity, and empathy. How fortunate that Joe Biden has each of these qualities, all core competencies as a result of the vicissitudes of life he has weathered. Joe Biden, scars and all, is a man perfectly fitted for the hour. 

The qualities of wise and unwise leaders are two of the chief themes running through a (well-timed) book I've been meditating on the last few months, the Tao Te Ching. Leaders are either in accord with or in opposition to the Tao, the basic principle of the universe. There's so much wisdom I'd like to share from this book (and I'm sure I will be in other posts), but Chapter 59 especially jumps off the page as the epitome of Joe Biden:

For governing a country well

There is nothing better than moderation.

The mark of a moderate man 

is freedom from his own ideas. 

Tolerant like the sky,

all pervading like sunlight,

firm like a mountain,

supple like a tree in the wind,

he has no destination in view

and makes use of anything

life happens to bring his way.

Nothing is impossible for him.

Because he has let go, 

he can care for the people's welfare

as a mother cares for her child.

I hope those words will prove more true than we can imagine-- that Biden will transform the impossible into the accomplished. The stakes are high, the obstacles many, and I often doubt how much can be achieved. But if anyone can slice through the fetters of dogmatism and arrive at something like justice in our time, it's Joe. And on the other side, I have a vision of what it might be like-- perfectly encapsulated by the last few lines of Chapter 17 of the Tao Te Ching. Here's the chapter in its entirety:

When the Master governs, the people

are hardly aware that he exists. 

Next best is a leader who is loved.

Next, one who is feared.

The worst is one who is despised.

If you don’t trust the people,

you make them untrustworthy.

The Master doesn’t talk, he acts. 

When his work is done, 

the people say “Amazing:

we did it, all by ourselves!”

The Referendum on Democracy, and The Start of a New Dark Age

Ninety seconds is all I could take of last night's debate. Which was not at all a surprise for me: for the past several years, I have been physically unable to watch Donald Trump for more than the time I am able to hold my breath. I have no problems reading secondary sources about him or even writing about him. But I'm simply unable follow either his unhinged Twitter trail or his verbal stream of nonstop bullshit. I'm fine watching him on mute, but the second I hear or read his deranged rantings, my subconscious gets triggered to seek an immediate mute button, X button, physical exit, earplugs, or escape of any kind.

I guess that's my version of Trump Derangement Syndrome. But it's actually a very adaptive response. Because, over the last five years, Trump's unceasing insults to reason, civility, democracy, and the rule of law have stacked upon each other to the point that near-complete avoidance of him is necessary to maintain a balanced psyche. The force of his psychopathy is so strong, there is no wonder why those in his orbit have abandoned previous commitments against white supremacy, foreign interference in elections, rape and sexual misconduct (26 accusations of which he is faced with), and abandoned any pretense of supporting basic democracy and peaceful transfers of power. Which, I submit, is the true Trump Derangement Syndrome.

There's no doubt that Biden will win the popular vote by a landslide-- my guess is it will be something like 56% to 42%. Though less certain, I'm still confident that Biden will take most of the swing states and that Democrats will win a slim majority in the Senate. Most likely, Trump will be removed from the White House in January (one way or another), and our republic will survive in attenuated form. But even that modest outcome is not assured.

It is not far-fetched that misinformation on the right will feed a massive amount of unrest by radical groups like the Proud Boys, who (rather than condemning) Trump told last night to "Stand back, and stand by." He also told his followers to "watch very closely" what happens at their polling places, so it is also likely that we will see the worst voter intimidation in a half-century. And as we all now know, Trump has repeatedly refused to agree to a peaceful transfer of power, so a true constitutional crisis and even military involvement remains a distinct possibility.

But the biggest question on this topic I wrestle with is this: can our democracy survive if nearly half of otherwise normal Americans are living in an alternative virtual reality without any anchoring to basic facts? Even if our institutions survive the unrest that is likely to follow the November election, there is no end in sight to the political polarization and rapid dissemination of fake news and conspiracy theories on social media. No democracy can long stand the onslaught of what I will term Social Media Derangement Syndrome, which all of us are affected by to some degree. For the past decade, our institutions have been living on borrowed time, drawing on the strength of a bygone era, weakening and now cracking under the increasing weight of an unsophisticated populace entranced by their algorithmic social media feeds, beholden to "alternative facts," and susceptible to extremism that is rising on both ends of the political spectrum, but particularly on the right.

We are entering a dark time. The pandemic is simply an insult added to the injury our institutions are experiencing and the true mortal threat our planet faces. We are in the early throes of long-term environmental, political, economic, public health, geopolitical, racial, economic, and spiritual turmoil which promises to last decades. Though I want to offer hope and prescriptions, it is critical that we first recognize that we are likely to face unprecedented levels of unrest and tragedy in the remaining 21st century, no matter how proactive our society manages to become in the coming years. 

The forces of light have been battling bravely to save us from ourselves for decades. Activists for environmental, racial, social, and economic justice have long waged a quixotic battle to bend the arc of history toward justice, and the solutions to many of our biggest problems are already tested and known. But though their achievements have been impressive, true reform movements in this country and around the world have not been able to keep pace with our society's version of "Whack a Mole," in which threats to free societies and the planet itself keep popping up, powered by corporate greed and platformed by fascist political parties.

To paraphrase Tristan Harris from the most recent Making Sense podcast, the best hope for change at the pace and scale that's needed is a massive cultural movement of psychological self-awareness. People have to start researching incomplete information deeper, asking people to explain their narratives, steelmaning each others' perspectives, and unfollowing outrage media like Fox News, InfoWars, and even MSNBC. Informed by Richard Rohr's work, I believe this type of movement can only occur if individuals are transformed by a combination of contemplation and social action. We need many more stable, compassionate, humble, and thoughtful individuals in our society if we are to turn the rising tide of extremism, dogmatism, greed, pride, hate, and fear.

E.O. Wilson wrote that "the fundamental problem of humanity is that we have paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and accelerating godlike technology." Big, structural change of the type espoused by Elizabeth Warren and Ezra Klein will get our institutions out of the Dark Ages, if we can politically manage the transition. And though we can't upgrade our paleolithic hardware, through action and contemplation we can install some new (and old) modules that will go a long way towards catching us up with our technology, and hopefully channel our future cultural and technological developments in healthy directions. The solutions to our cognitive-institutional-technological mismatch are there for us all to take.

But will we? With the great love but little faith and hope I have, I pray for God help us all to make the changes needed in ourselves and in our society over the difficult months and years ahead-- so that we will save ourselves from ourselves.