Pandemic mode, episode 4

The curves are flattening. Not everywhere, and not soon enough-- but it's happening. New York and New Jersey are seeing staggering losses, but not quite the knock-out figures that had been feared. Though many community hospitals are full to bursting and refrigerated trucks keep filling up with bodies, the "death panels" and ventilator-sharing many feared have not been required, and the main emergency hospital in NYC that was set up in a convention center is not even close to capacity. Unfortunately for many places in the country, the infection rate is still so high that shelter-in-place orders will need to stay in effect for many more weeks until it will be safe to start loosening restrictions.

The crisis is hitting the poor and weak the hardest-- as all crises tend to do. Outbreaks in New York and New Jersey nursing homes alone have already claimed about 2,000 lives, while homeless shelters across the country are experiencing disasters on a similar scale. Poorer neighborhoods, where population density is the greatest and the ability to physically distance is the worst, are being disproportionately affected. And hotspots in developing countries like Ecuador are starting to show the world how horrendous COVID-19 can make things: completely overwhelmed systems, people dying without even the semblance of medical care, bodies lying in bedrooms and on sidewalks for days.

Close to home, North Carolina is starting to see a reduction in the daily case count-- as illustrated in the darker blue line in this graph:

Thanks to prompt action on the part of Governor Cooper, we have been spared a big initial wave, giving us the time to build up testing capability and await clinical trials. At Watauga Medical Center, our turnaround time for a COVID-19 test is now just under 48 hours-- not great, but a lot better than the 5-7 day period we were dealing with a few weeks ago. And we have yet to see local transmission in Watauga County, thanks to our proactive local health department.

With those updates out of the way, lets reflect a little on Bill Gates. His Ted Talk from 2015 predicting a pandemic just like the one we're facing and laying out all the steps we needed to take to be ready for it has gone viral over the past few weeks. He was just interviewed on a new Ted Talk, and the gist of that discussion was that no one took his advice and we were totally unprepared, so... told ya so? Or.... maybe listen to one of the smartest people in the world the next time he gives a Ted Talk? 

It's hard to imagine that Bill Gates' recommendations were not heard by some in the federal government's bureaucracy. He's freaking Bill Gates, who along with his wife runs one of the largest charitable organizations in the history of mankind and is almost single-handedly wiping polio off the face of the earth. When he talks, smart people listen. But if you listen to the talk closely, you can tell that he realizes his prescriptions are a tall order, politically speaking. But nothing in the talk sounds all that hard to implement, other than finding the motivation to commit to it in the first place. 

Furthermore, you'd think we would have learned over the last few decades that Black Swan events are actually quite common-- and that we ought to prepare for as many of them as we can. Events like 9/11, the Great Recession, the Fukushima meltdown, and Brexit were all massive shocks at the time. Further back, the world wars, oil tanker spills, and the sinking of the Titanic are just a few other examples. The problem is that our lives are affected by them so much afterward that they don't seem that unexpected in retrospect. 

We can all plan for crises in the future by stocking up on essential supplies and gaining as many practical and survival skills as we reasonably can. But the government (I hate to say, as a recovering libertarian) is obligated to play a pivotal role in preparing society by taking steps that no one in a free market would take, but which will be critical in preventing and dealing with future crises. In addition to preparing for pandemics, governments should get out in front of AI technology in a way they have certainly not with Big Tech to date. There are plenty of steps that should also be taken to mitigate the risk of nuclear war, accidental nuclear detonations, and conventional wars. And climate change remains the greatest and ever-growing threat to our planet and human civilization. Yet lawmakers continue to dawdle and allow petroleum industry- financed Republican lawmakers to cast doubt on the very present reality of climate change with endless specious arguments. And every day, the planet heats up a little bit more.

I have grave doubts that our government can ever get out in front of any of these issues-- at least the way it is currently structured. Like Ezra Klein and Elizabeth Warren, I believe-- I know-- that "big, structural change" is critical if we are to be able to address the challenges we now face and those which are just around the river bend. These issues transcend any particular electoral cycle-- but nevertheless, each election is critical if we are going to be able to thread all the needles we need to thread at the same time and come out intact on the other side. Though I have doubts that Joe Biden is the right person to lead us into these changes, I know that until Donald Trump is out of office, every day that passes is precious time-- critical, life- and planet-saving time-- that is irretrievably lost. 

So although I didn't intend for this post to get political, here we are again. If you're an American eligible to vote and residing in a swing state (like North Carolina), perhaps the best thing you could do for the country and for the planet in 2020 is to vote for whoever has the best chance of beating Donald Trump. If enough people do that, we may start getting ready for coming crises before their waves crash upon our shores. 

Until next week, stay calm and self-isolate on.