Can We Talk? A Post About the Grand Old Party

As a result of my reflections on a steady input of podcasts, news, and editorials over the last few years, I've picked up on two things that have been lost on many in our society, especially people who are older than 50: the Republican party is descending into fascism, and this represents the greatest threat to our democracy in nearly a century.

Just as on the left, conservatives have always had their crazies. After the realignment of the parties in the 1970s and 80s, the far right was initially kept in check by dominant moderates like George H. W. Bush, but given just enough oxygen to stay attached-- and hopeful. Rush Limbaugh's rise in the early 90's and Pat Robertson's speech at the 1992 Republican convention, which both presaged the fear-mongering of the Trump presidency, are examples of the extremist rhetoric that had a small but definite foothold in the party even 30 years ago. 

In my admittedly incomplete view, Newt Gingrich jumpstarted the far-right's ascent to dominance in 1994, adopting and weaponizing Robertson's extreme, divisive rhetoric. The Republicans' electoral success that year validated this approach as a viable strategy, and has been an essential part of their messaging ever since. Furthermore, according to the very well-referenced Wikipedia article on Gingrich,

A number of scholars have credited Gingrich with playing a key role in undermining democratic norms in the United States, and hastening political polarization and partisan prejudice, According to Harvard University political scientists Daniel Ziblatt and Steven Levitsky, Gingrich's speakership had a profound and lasting impact on American politics and health of American democracy. They argue that Gingrich instilled a "combative" approach in the Republican Party, where hateful language and hyper-partisanship became commonplace, and where democratic norms were abandoned. Gingrich frequently questioned the patriotism of Democrats, called them corrupt, compared them to fascists, and accused them of wanting to destroy the United States. Gingrich furthermore oversaw several major government shutdowns.

University of Maryland political scientist Lilliana Mason uses Gingrich's instructions to Republicans to use words such as “betray, bizarre, decay, destroy, devour, greed, lie, pathetic, radical, selfish, shame, sick, steal, and traitors” about Democrats as an example of a breach in social norms and exacerbation of partisan prejudice.^[7] Gingrich is a key figure in the 2017 book The Polarizers by Colgate University political scientist Sam Rosenfeld about the American political system's shift to polarization and gridlock.

Under Gingrich, hate became mainstream. The rise of the internet in the late 90's further fueled this flame. However, many Republicans did not fully embrace Gingrich's approach, and those moderates maintained significant power in the party throughout the decade. In addition, most of Gingrich's policy positions remained within the broadly conservative tradition, and the Grand Old Party's new uneasy coalition survived into the 2000s, powering the disastrous presidency of Bush II.

Despite the unparalleled foreign policy blunders of his administration, Bush maintained the new status quo, and to my eye neither pushed forward nor restricted the toxic rhetoric now embedded in his party. His administration gave the evangelical movement its day in the sun, but its racist and authoritarian underbelly remained mostly hidden. But his tolerance of Gingrich-esque toxic rhetoric and Limbaughian conspiracy theories, his lack of support for environmental regulations, and his initiation of the dystopian War on Terror with its Patriot Act and resulting mass surveillance, was enough to continue the party on its dangerous course. The short-term result was the nomination of Sarah Palin for vice president at the end of his two terms. 

By virtue of her limited experience, her demonstrable lack of intelligence, and her extremely close ties to the oil industry, Palin was clearly unprepared to effectively lead the United States-- but that didn't stop McCain from nominating her in the knowledge that she would appeal to the increasingly anti-intellectual base of the party. Over the course of her candidacy, she made climate change denial and unquestioned support of the oil industry mainstream, and disabused many in the party of the idea that one should actually have legitimate experience and qualifications to become president-- changes that echoed into 2016. In 2008, the "base" of the Republican party unmoored from reality.

The moderate Mitt Romney squeaked out a victory in the 2012 primary as a result of the fragmentation of the extreme-yet-mainstream elements of the party among several very flawed candidates. But the Tea Party base never warmed to him, and his defeat by Obama that fall indicated to many in the GOP that appealing to their base was the only winning strategy. 

So in 2016, after eight years of imbibing increasingly lunatic conspiracy theories on social media like the Obama birther theory promoted by Donald Trump, the Republican party was ready to fully embrace whatever candidate could arouse the most anger, fear, and hate. The matchup highlighted the state of the party: the con man Trump in the lead, a powerful evangelical wing that couldn't quite unite behind Cruz because of the appeal of Trump, a diminished moderate wing led by John Kasich, and a compromise, establishment Republican wing lacking any vision or energy, represented by Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Briefly, there was also the libertarian Rand Paul, who quickly sold out to Trump. Perhaps if all the other candidates had thrown their support behind one candidate (as Buttigieg and Klobuchar did for Joe Biden on the eve of Super Tuesday in 2020), Trump could have been defeated. But it was not to be. A quarter-century of political developments had ordained Trump's moment in 2016. And Russian social media trolls were there in November to push him over the finish line, suppressing the black vote, energizing white supremacists and neo-Nazis, and magnifying conspiracies to the foolish and gullible.

Most establishment Republicans-- most notably Paul Ryan and Lindsey Graham-- swallowed their misgivings and bent the knee to Trump in the summer of 2016, in the misbegotten hope that by allying with him, they could direct his administration to achieve their policy aims. Several fractured efforts by establishment leaders like Mitt Romney to block his nomination failed. By embracing Trump, with full knowledge of his charlatanic, ignorant, amoral, narcissistic, and authoritarian character, the Republicans' last chance to save their party from fascism was lost. 

The transformation of the GOP and right-wing politics into a fascist personality cult was completed rapidly from there. FOX News rapidly dispensed with every moderate conservative voice like George Will and Charles Krauthammer around the time of Trump's inauguration, ushering in the era of center-right disenfranchisement and complete Trumpian dominance in the mainstream right-wing media. Though 20 percent of Republican congressmen and women voted against Trump in 2016, nearly all lost their jobs during the election or fell quickly into step behind him out of fear of losing their jobs in 2018. By 2019, 40% of Republicans who were in Congress in 2016 were gone-- an unprecedented turnover. A cleansing. 

Over the last three years, hundreds of books and thousands of articles have been published by journalists and disaffected former members of the Trump administration exposing and examining nearly every toxic aspect of Trump's failed leadership of the US government. Meanwhile, a couple dozen of his former aides have been convicted and imprisoned for various types of corruption. His own tweets and comments constantly highlighting conspiracy theories, calling into question established facts, and stoking anger and division are daily reminders of his unfitness to lead. Independent investigations, impeachment proceedings, and ongoing investigations into Trump's finances have raised grave concerns about Trump's fitness for office. But their only lasting effects have been to assure Trump that every Republican in Congress except Mitt Romney is his Republican, his supporters are as loyal to him as to any mafia boss, and that the GOP is his party. 

A big reason for this bulletproof devotion is that his supporters do not trust any source of information that challenges their worldview. As a result of willful ignorance, there is no discrimination between sources with fact-checking mechanisms like editorial review boards, and outlets for conspiracy theories with no basis in reality. In fact, the latter is given more weight on Facebook (which is where most right-wing folks get most of their news) by virtue of the 10x more interest received by posts which stoke outrage. Republicans are far more prone to pick up a book by Bill O'Reilly or Sean Hannity than anything by award-winning journalists like Bob Woodward, who wrote Fear: Trump in the White House back in 2018. 

This gets to the heart of the matter, and why I'm so concerned about the Republican party descending into fascism. Trump has fomented a distrust of media outlets with objective journalistic integrity, amplified sources with no credibility, and encouraged his fan base to do the same. So now it is no longer just Trump who calls objective information he doesn't like "fake news," it's nearly half of the United States' population. Half of Americans are living in an alternative universe.

A key step of every fascist regime in history is to whip up outrage at and attack the credibility of the free press. The Nazis called it "Lugenpresse," translated as "lying press--" alternatively translated as "fake news." Then, when enough people join their side, fascists start progressively restricting the press until it eventually becomes a mouthpiece of the state. Unfortunately, the Trumpian onslaught has come at a particularly vulnerable time for the free press, which has been weakened by the last recession and the growth of free online media.

Simultaneously in fascist overthrows, the rule of law is trampled upon, mass surveillance is employed, dissent is labeled treason, and terrifying internal and external enemies are invoked. Sound familiar? Many of these pieces have been in place since the early 2000's, and unfortunately Obama did not significantly reverse many of the trends started by his predecessor. Looking at it from this angle, the pieces of fascism seem to be coming together.

Though most of the ingredients of fascism are in place, they have fortunately not been systematically employed. Trump is too focused on having his fragile ego massaged on a daily basis and lacks the strategic mindset needed to effect an overthrow of our longstanding democratic institutions. But they have been weakened, and the cracks are apparent. My greatest worry is that in 2024, 2028, or 2032, a truly Machiavellian character will emerge from the morass of the Republican party who will attempt a systematic dismantling of our democratic institutions. This will no doubt be fought tooth and nail by Democrats. But after the last four years, there remains no doubt that the vast majority of Republicans will go right along with it. And that might be enough.